13 лютого 2015 Macroeconomics
Minsk 2: Macroeconomic background
In a second attempt by Ukraine (supported by the West) and the Kremlin to stop the Donbas war, there is a great deal of uncertainty whether the key sides--Ukraine's leadership and the Kremlin--will fu ...
6 лютого 2015 Macroeconomics
Hryvnia prospects appear distressed
FX rate. Yesterday, the NBU committed to liberating the hryvnia to trade on the FX market in accordance with true market principles, i.e. free floating. While the currency closed at 22.645/USD ...
12 листопада 2014 Macroeconomics
Practicing a crises slalom
This is an updated and condensed summary of our macro view for the 4Q of 2014 and 2015-16. Ukraine is practicing a crises slalom. In our view, the past 12 months saw acute political c ...
30 липня 2014 Macroeconomics
Ukraine to Kremlin: Back off
This is our condensed summary of our macro view for the 2H of 2014 and 2015-16. De-facto war: Ukraine responds to Kremlin military assertiveness. Ukraine's public and its milit
16 квітня 2014 Macroeconomics
Ukraine: Global war by other means
Below is a summary of our macro view for 2014-15. (It is condensed to three pages in order to detail key information from the report.) Geopolitics: Ukraine as a brand-new epicentre of the
29 жовтня 2013 Macroeconomics
Where are we headed from here?
This summary provides a brief outline of our view on Ukraine's macroeconomic state during the rest of 2013 and from 2014-16. Ukraine's geopolitical puzzle: Adding the missing parts. Uk
14 серпня 2013 Macroeconomics
Muddling through no more
ICU's macroeconomic view on Ukraine in the forecast period of 2H13 and 2014-15 is summarised below. Ukraine's economy tired, nearly exhausted, and cornered. To paraphrase sports commen
31 січня 2013 Macroeconomics
Keep the music playing
ICU's macroeconomic view on Ukraine in the forecasted three-year period of 2013-15 is summarised in the following viewpoints: Cornered, and with limited room for manoeuvre. Ukraine fin