20 марта 2015 Macroeconomics
What economic activity indicators reveal
In February’s monthly statistics on Ukraine's key economic sectors published this week, all sectors, including agriculture, declined year-on-year on the basis of raw data. However, upon closer analysi ...
12 марта 2015 Macroeconomics
Trapped in “The Depression Union"
This is an updated and condensed summary of our macro view for the next three-year period of 2015-17. Economics vs. geopolitics: “The Ukrainian crisis” should really be named “The Russian ...
27 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Ukrainian FX in freefall versus peers
Corrected: front page chartUpon close analysis of available data from the BIS and
20 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Economic activity: Recession lengthens, deepens
Because the Minsk 2 ceasefire agreement appears to have failed (or was just tactical manoeuvring by both sides), we expect prolonged Kremlin aggression towards Ukraine in the economic, information and ...
13 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Minsk 2: Macroeconomic background
In a second attempt by Ukraine (supported by the West) and the Kremlin to stop the Donbas war, there is a great deal of uncertainty whether the key sides--Ukraine's leadership and the Kremlin--will fu ...
6 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Hryvnia prospects appear distressed
FX rate. Yesterday, the NBU committed to liberating the hryvnia to trade on the FX market in accordance with true market principles, i.e. free floating. While the currency closed at 22.645/USD ...
12 ноября 2014 Macroeconomics
Practicing a crises slalom
This is an updated and condensed summary of our macro view for the 4Q of 2014 and 2015-16. Ukraine is practicing a crises slalom. In our view, the past 12 months saw acute political c ...
30 июля 2014 Macroeconomics
Ukraine to Kremlin: Back off
This is our condensed summary of our macro view for the 2H of 2014 and 2015-16. De-facto war: Ukraine responds to Kremlin military assertiveness. Ukraine's public and its milit