27 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Ukrainian FX in freefall versus peers
Corrected: front page chartUpon close analysis of available data from the BIS and
20 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Economic activity: Recession lengthens, deepens
Because the Minsk 2 ceasefire agreement appears to have failed (or was just tactical manoeuvring by both sides), we expect prolonged Kremlin aggression towards Ukraine in the economic, information and ...
13 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Minsk 2: Macroeconomic background
In a second attempt by Ukraine (supported by the West) and the Kremlin to stop the Donbas war, there is a great deal of uncertainty whether the key sides--Ukraine's leadership and the Kremlin--will fu ...
6 февраля 2015 Macroeconomics
Hryvnia prospects appear distressed
FX rate. Yesterday, the NBU committed to liberating the hryvnia to trade on the FX market in accordance with true market principles, i.e. free floating. While the currency closed at 22.645/USD ...
12 ноября 2014 Macroeconomics
Practicing a crises slalom
This is an updated and condensed summary of our macro view for the 4Q of 2014 and 2015-16. Ukraine is practicing a crises slalom. In our view, the past 12 months saw acute political c ...
30 июля 2014 Macroeconomics
Ukraine to Kremlin: Back off
This is our condensed summary of our macro view for the 2H of 2014 and 2015-16. De-facto war: Ukraine responds to Kremlin military assertiveness. Ukraine's public and its milit
16 апреля 2014 Macroeconomics
Ukraine: Global war by other means
Below is a summary of our macro view for 2014-15. (It is condensed to three pages in order to detail key information from the report.) Geopolitics: Ukraine as a brand-new epicentre of the
29 октября 2013 Macroeconomics
Where are we headed from here?
This summary provides a brief outline of our view on Ukraine's macroeconomic state during the rest of 2013 and from 2014-16. Ukraine's geopolitical puzzle: Adding the missing parts. Uk